From Appendix D of The First Red
The Forecast
Outcome = Capability × Behaviour. Adjust the sliders and watch what happens when you run 10,000 simulations.
Each simulation calculates Capability × a random Behaviour value for both teams. The histogram shows the distribution of 10,000 outcomes. Where the distributions overlap is where the "weaker" team can win — because behaviours are the multiplier.
Try it: give one team high capability but poor behaviours (0.1–0.3), and the other low capability but strong behaviours (0.7–1.0). Watch what happens.
Monte Carlo, in plain English
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs the same scenario thousands of times with random inputs to produce a distribution of possible outcomes and their probabilities, rather than a single deterministic answer. It is widely used in finance, engineering and project forecasting.
What does this simulator show?
It runs 10,000 simulations of Outcome = Capability × Behaviour for two teams, showing how a team with lower capability but stronger behaviours can beat a team with higher capability but poor behaviours — because behaviour is the multiplier.
How is Monte Carlo used to forecast project delivery?
By sampling a team's real historical throughput thousands of times to produce a range of completion dates with confidence levels such as P50, P85 and P95 — instead of one guessed date. IMIRT's Delivery Intelligence does exactly this on your monday.com board.
Is this Monte Carlo simulator free?
Yes. It is a free interactive companion to The First Red (Appendix D). No sign-up required.