From Appendix D of The First Red
The Forecast
Outcome = Capability × Behaviour. Adjust the sliders and watch what happens when you run 10,000 simulations.
5
0.60
1.00
— win rate
vs
9
0.10
0.50
— win rate
Ballymore Carrickmore Overlap (upset zone)
Each simulation calculates Capability × a random Behaviour value for both teams. The histogram shows the distribution of 10,000 outcomes. Where the distributions overlap is where the "weaker" team can win — because behaviours are the multiplier.
Try it: give one team high capability but poor behaviours (0.1–0.3), and the other low capability but strong behaviours (0.7–1.0). Watch what happens.