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The First Red
What Your Dashboards Aren't Telling You
A business leadership novel. For fans of The Phoenix Project, Moneyball and Legacy.
What if the most important signals in your organisation are the ones no dashboard measures?
When struggling coach Declan Maguire watches a football match, he doesn't watch the ball. He watches the spaces between plays — who talks, who reacts, who steps up, and who disappears. Over nine years and hundreds of matches, he builds a framework that predicts outcomes before they happen: Reds, Blues, and Greens — behavioural signals that tell you what the scoreboard won't show until it's too late.
Carrickmore Town FC has everything money can buy: a world-class performance centre, cutting-edge analytics, and a dashboard glowing green across forty-seven metrics. But beneath the numbers, something is quietly breaking. When Ballymore United — an amateur side with a leaking clubhouse and a volunteer committee — draw Carrickmore in the cup, Declan believes the behaviours tell a different story from the odds. Because The First Red is never on the pitch.
The First Red is a business leadership novel about why capable teams fail, why dashboards lie, and what you can actually do about it. It comes with a full practical framework — the Five Plays, Declan's Notebook method, and a probability forecasting tool — so you can start applying it the day you finish reading.
If you've ever looked at a dashboard full of green and known something was wrong, this book is for you.
Available worldwide on Amazon. Also on BuyTheBook.ie and Goodreads.
What People Are Saying
"The gurus have always said that you can't manage what you can't measure, but Andrew's book helps you see something that's even more important: you can't manage what you can't see."
"The First Red will be the go to guide for every successful manager and team who want to achieve maximum capabilities with measurable results."
"I read it in a day, it was engaging and relatable and it put me in a good mood. If you feel like something isn't working in the business setting, this book offers good insights as to why that's happening."
"The concept introduced in the book is simple, easy to grasp, and surprisingly powerful when you think about applying it in real life. If you're tired of abstract theories and want something practical, memorable, and actually enjoyable to read, this is a great choice."
"The book stands out in how it portrays the gap between dashboards and reality. A fast, insightful, memorable debut."
"I read it in a day and I forgot I was reading a business book to begin with. Recommended!"
Experience the Equation
Two interactive tools that let you see Outcome = Capability × Behaviour in action:
The Cup Run
Manage Ballymore United through a 6-round cup run. Make decisions that shape your team's culture. Learn to read behavioural signals. Can you beat Carrickmore in the final?
Play the GameMonte Carlo Simulator
Adjust the capability and behaviour sliders for two teams and watch what happens over 10,000 simulated matches. From Appendix D.
Launch SimulatorWho This Book Is For
The First Red is for leaders, managers, coaches, and anyone who's looked at a dashboard full of green and known something was off. It's for people who suspect that the metrics they track are lagging indicators of problems that started weeks ago.
It's also for anyone who enjoys a good story. The argument is wrapped in narrative — set in the world of football, not the boardroom — because some ideas land better when you feel them rather than just read about them.
What Comes After the Book
The First Red makes the argument. If you want to put it into practice, here's how I can help:
Behavioural Consultancy
I help teams surface the signals their dashboards miss — communication patterns, decision-making dynamics, pressure responses. The leading indicators of delivery failure.
Learn moreFractional CTO
Senior technical leadership for growing companies. Strategy, architecture, hiring, and the engineering culture work that keeps good teams good.
Learn moreWant to talk about what you're seeing in your organisation?
andrew@andrewlocatelliwoodcock.com